Tuesday, July 12, 2016

For the Record: What if I vote for a third party?


We heard you, America: You want to vote for anyone besides Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.
But barring any last-minute craziness at the upcoming conventions – which looks increasingly unlikely -- those alternatives can only be found in two places: The Libertarian and Green parties.
A look at the impact of third choices, and what to expect (or not) from next week’s Republican National Convention.
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THE THIRD-PARTY EFFECT


Libertarian candidate for President Gary Johnson expect to be on all the ballots in the 2016 election. The third-party candidate chats with Susan Page about gun control, using marijuana and his chances at becoming President.
If you find it morally offensive to vote for Trump or Clinton, you’ve got two choices (well, sort of): Gary Johnson, the Libertarian, or Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate. We say sort of because while Johnson will most likely be on the ballot in all 50 states, Stein most likely will not. Which makes winning, um, a challenge.
Even still, some opinion polls are including Johnson and Stein as options, and the results show a decent (if not growing) base of support. In fact, Donald Trump placed behind Johnson and Stein among Millennials, according to the latest Pew Research Center andQuinnipiac University polls.
So, what could be the impact of a third-party vote, if winning is most likely not an option?
The smart folks at Five Thirty Eight crunched limited polling data on third party candidates and found that their support could shrink Clinton’s lead, which could play a big role if the race is close. Voting third-party could become a de facto vote for Trump.
Does that mean another Ross Perot or Ralph Nader spoiler? Maybe yes, maybe no. Johnson is polling slightly higher than Nader at this point in 2000 but significantly lower thanRoss Perot in 1992, when a lot more voters actually liked their main-party choices.
If that depresses you, there’s always the long-shot theory that if Johnson can manage to win at least one state – like maybe New Mexico where he was once governor – neither Trump nor Clinton will have enough Electoral College votes to secure the presidency. And that would leave it up the House of Representatives to choose our venerable leader.
Heaven help us then.
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